The trajectory of rival soccer teams has changed.
So the gambling market will change as well ahead of Saturday night’s Michigan vs. Michigan State game.
More than two months into the season, reigning national champion Michigan was a 24.5-point favorite going into their Week 9 matchup with Michigan State, and was still a 9.5-point favorite before last week’s game. While the Wolverines are still the betting favorites right now, the line has dropped significantly after a 4-3 start for both teams, most recently with a Spartans win over Iowa and Wolverines loss to Illinois.
This week’s rivalry line started at 6.5 points in Michigan’s favor, but it was down to 5.5 points by noon Tuesday and down to 4 points by 6 p.m. Tuesday. And it could drop further before kickoff.
“This is quite an adjustment,” said Johnny Abello, DraftKings director of racing and sportsbook operations. “This shows that Michigan’s power rating is decreasing and Michigan State’s power rating is increasing.
“Both teams are just having a hard time. I think Michigan is probably having a harder time.”
More: Niyo: Seeing is believing, MSU has an advantage over UM
The reason behind Michigan State still being a slight favorite to win even though Michigan State has had a decent record at Michigan Stadium in recent years, winning three of the last five games, was announced Tuesday Around noon, Abello said he had home-field advantage after all. Ann Arbor.
DraftKings’ over-under totaled 40 points, while BetMGM’s was 40 1/2.
Michigan State is coming off a blowout 32-20 win over Iowa State, ending the Spartans’ losing streak at three games. However, two of those losses were against two of the nation’s top teams: Oregon State and Ohio State.
“Two really fast teams,” Abello said. “Iowa must have looked slow to them after playing those two.”
According to BetMGM, of the actions taken against the spread, 87% of bets and 91% of total handles were on Michigan State, while on the moneyline (straight up) 92% of bets and 96% of total handles is occupied. I’m at MSU.
Michigan State was a +1400 underdog at one point on BetMGM’s money line. So if you bet $100 on the Spartans to win, you would pay out $1,400 if they win. This goes down to +175. That means you can win $175 on a $100 bet. Abello said he expects money to continue to flow in and believes Saturday’s college football game, especially the night game, will be one of the most bet.
Before the season, DraftKings’ over-under wins were about nine for Michigan and seven for Michigan State. The Wolverines’ bet seems out of reach, but Abello said he’s not entirely surprised.
“(Jim) Harbaugh saw this coming. He knew he was going to lose (JJ) McCarthy and (Blake) Collum. He knew it was probably going to be a tough fight,” Abello said. Ta. “He probably realized he didn’t have a solid quarterback this year, so I think all of those things probably influenced his decision to go pro.
“Was Sherrone Moore ready to coach a team at this level?”
“I think he’s going to make Michigan State a better-than-average team. They’re going to be a tough contender over the next few years,” Abello said of Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith.
Abello said the key to Saturday’s game will be turnovers. Michigan State’s turnover margin is -6, Michigan State’s -7, both among the worst in the nation — and the running game always plays a key role in the outcome. of this rivalry. MSU gained a season-best 212 yards against Iowa State’s excellent defense.
tpaul@detroitnews.com
@tonypaul1984