The University of North Carolina System enrolled more students this fall (approximately 248,000) than ever before. But continued growth is by no means a given. In fact, many institutions will see enrollment declines as the U.S. college population plateaus and then begins to decline over the next decade. Some companies may be forced to merge or close due to financial instability.
Because North Carolina’s population growth is higher than average, universities will be given a slightly longer grace period. We are a net importer of American families and young people seeking good jobs and a lower cost of living. The state’s climate and amenities also make it an attractive destination for foreign-born students.
Please note, it is just a grace period. UNC campuses, community colleges, and private institutions will continue to engage with off-campus alternative institutions, including other institutions of higher education as well as businesses, nonprofit organizations, and employers offering certification, apprenticeships, and on-the-job training. You will face stiff competition.
In short, enrollment challenges are not just about demographics. It’s about changes in the post-secondary education and training market.
Over the years, I have written many times about return on investment (ROI) in higher education. Leveraging a growing body of federal data, academics can estimate the increase in earnings associated with earning a given degree at a given campus. By factoring in the total cost of completing these degrees, including the wages students don’t earn while in school, analysts can calculate ROI in percentages or dollars.
For example, the average return on investment for an associate’s degree in Industrial Manufacturing Technology from Wake Technical Community College is $884,991, which is higher than many four-year degrees from nearby North Carolina State University. Similarly, the ROI for a biology degree from UNC Asheville is $315,269. Asheville Buncombe Institute of Technology’s Allied Health Program has an ROI of $668,817 for an associate degree in Diagnosis, Intervention, or Treatment.
When I write about studies like this, I always get complaints like: The college experience should be more than just vocational training. What about truth, beauty, discovery, civic virtue, and the life of the mind? ”
As it happens, I highly value these non-vocational benefits of higher education. When I was pursuing my bachelor’s degree in journalism at UNC-Chapel Hill in the 1980s, I almost completed another major in philosophy because the subject appealed to me so much. Decades later, when I went back to school to earn a master’s degree in liberal arts, it wasn’t because I needed a qualification, but to learn more about history and political science.
But for last-minute students, those who are deciding whether to attend college in the first place or go back to earn a previously abandoned degree, their primary motivation is to enter the profession or get promoted. It is to do. And for most kids and their parents who go to college, their choice of campus is heavily influenced by estimates of the expected financial benefits, even if they value other experiences and amenities along the way.
The public and essential benefits of education are very real. However, while it is true that effective self-government requires an educated population, this does not mean that everyone should go to university. It is the job of primary and secondary schools, universal educational institutions, to develop the knowledge, wisdom, and judgment of responsible parents, voters, and citizens.
The public functions of universities prepare students for leadership in business, government, religion, philanthropy, education, and other fields, while producing valuable research and applying their expertise to community service. It is to do.
When it comes to the essential benefits of studying great works of art, exploring great questions, and grappling with great ideas, a physical campus is undoubtedly one of the places where future generations will pursue them. is. However, there may be many lower cost alternatives.
In the face of admissions pressures, smart university leaders will market their programs by increasing their ROI. Granted, that’s not all they do, but if they don’t, their organization will shrink.
John Hood is a director of the John Locke Foundation. His most recent books, Mountain Folk and Forest Folk, combine epic fantasy with early American history.
