Indian markets ended the week lower on Friday, led by declines in auto and banking stocks. Pharmaceutical and metal stocks provided some support, but not enough to lift the index. As a result, the Nifty 50 fell 0.14% to 24,964, ending below 25,000 for the third consecutive day. Similarly, Sensex fell by 0.28 per cent to close at 81,381.
In the third week of October, investors will be interested in the first quarter results for the July-September period of the 2024-25 fiscal year (2nd quarter of 2025), the Israel-Iran war, foreign capital outflows, oil prices, and global indicators. We will closely monitor key market drivers such as: , national and global macroeconomic data.
Also Read | Stock Market Today: Nifty 50, Sensex ends with marginal loss; Pharmaceuticals and metals soar
For the week, both Nifty 50 and Sensex ended in the red by 0.20% and 0.40%. Concerns over the Middle East conflict, the continued exodus of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), concerns about a potential slowdown in earnings, and high valuations all weighed on investor sentiment.
The Nifty 50 index fell 3.28% in October, the steepest monthly decline since December 2022. The index has fallen nearly 5.34% from its recent high of 26,277 points. Similarly, the Sensex has fallen 5% from its recent peak of 85,978 points and has fallen 3.46% this month.
“The Nifty 50 started the week sharply lower but found support around the Fibonacci 38.2% level and ended 0.20% lower week-on-week. Also, the price is still above the 21-week EMA, indicating a positive trend. On the contrary, a break below these levels could increase selling pressure towards 24,500. Resistance lies at 25,250, where buying could trigger a move towards 25,600. Overall, the outlook for next week looks sideways bullish, supporting a buy-on-the-touch strategy,” Master Capital said.・Palka Arora Chopra, Director of Services, said:
“The market outlook includes India WPI inflation rate (YoY) (September), India CPI (YoY) (September), Indian bank loan growth and deposit growth, Indian corporate second quarter results, and the U.S. New jobless claims, US core retail sales (September), US industrial production (September), China GDP (y/y) (Q3) and UK CPI inflation data,” Chopra added. Ta.
Here are the main drivers for the stock market next week:
2nd quarter results
Investors will be focused on analyzing the company’s earnings next week, when the second round of 2025 financial results are scheduled to be released. Reliance Industries has scheduled a meeting on October 14, 2024 to review and approve the standalone Q2 2024 results of the Sensex leading companies. The Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate has already notified the Indian stock exchanges the date of its board meeting to announce its quarterly results for Q2 FY25.
Also Read |Stock Price Confidence: Should you buy RIL stock ahead of Monday’s Q2 results?
Apart from RIL, other major companies like Infosys, Axis Bank, Wipro, Jio Financial Services and HDFC Bank are also expected to announce their Q2 FY25 results next week.
“As we enter second-quarter earnings season, a number of earnings reports are expected to be released this week that could lead to stock and sector-specific moves.In addition, our Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data has also been released and will be closely monitored,” said Santosh Meena, head of research at Swastika Investmart.
3 new IPOs, 3 to be listed on D-Street
A total of three initial public offerings (IPOs) are scheduled to begin next week in major markets, one in the mainboard sector and two in the small and medium-sized enterprises sector.
Hyundai Motor India plans to raise over Rs 27,000 crore through an IPO and is set to make its biggest-ever offering in major markets next week.
Also read | Hyundai Motor India IPO: GMP, price, reviews and other details. Should you apply or not?
In addition to the IPOs, three new IPOs are expected to be listed next week.
FII activities
Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net bought shares worth Rs 3,731 crore while foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold shares worth Rs 4,163 crore on October 11, according to provisional data from NSE. did.
DII purchased shares worth a total of Rs 11.97 billion and sold shares worth Rs 8.176 billion. In contrast, FIIs acquired shares worth Rs 6,220 crore but sold shares worth Rs 10,382 crore during the trading session.
“So far, the main trend in overseas portfolio flows in October has been sustained selling by FPIs. FPI funds are still moving into cheap Chinese stocks, with the Hang Seng Index (China’s H-shares listed in Hong Kong) having a P/E ratio of around 12 times, and Nifty’s P/E ratio of around 12. This is an estimated 23 times higher. So, while FY25 earnings could move more funds into Chinese stocks, India has much better growth prospects compared to China and therefore India deserves a premium valuation, but at the moment the valuation difference This could further sustain the FPI sell-off as is too large. time.
This month it runs until October 11th. FPIs sold the stake for Rs 587.1 billion. (NSDL) This massive sell-off did not have a serious impact on the market as the entire sell-off of FPIs was absorbed into DIIs which are receiving sustained inflows. This trend of FII selling and DII buying is likely to continue in the short term,” said VK Vijayamar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
global queue
Over the weekend, China’s Ministry of Finance held a meeting where markets expected guidance on future stimulus. While a positive outcome from China could have a big impact on the market, any disappointment could provide a short-term boost to Indian stocks.
The market outlook is based on factors such as India WPI inflation rate (YoY) (September), India CPI (YoY) (September), Indian bank loan growth and deposit growth, second quarter financial results of Indian companies, and major factors such as the U.S. Depends on national and global economic data. New unemployment insurance claims, US core retail sales (September), US industrial production (September), China GDP (y/y) (Q3), UK CPI inflation data.
crude oil price
Oil prices fell on Friday, but rose for a second straight week as investors weighed possible supply disruptions in the Middle East and the impact of Hurricane Milton on fuel demand in Florida.
Brent crude oil futures fell 36 cents, or 0.45%, to close at $79.04 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures fell 29 cents, or 0.38%, to $75.56 per barrel. I calmed down.
Also read | Crude oil rises more than 1% in 5 days, continues to rise for 2nd week in a row
“We also need to pay attention to geopolitical developments and changes in oil prices. In addition, U.S. data and trends in U.S. bond yields and the dollar index will also be important factors to consider. The latest information, and the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council meeting, will be important global triggers,” added Meena.
corporate behavior
Shares of leading companies like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Anand Rati Wealth Limited, NRB Barings Limited will go ex-dividend from Monday, October 14, 2024 as per Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) It will be traded at.
Also read | Dividend stocks: TCS, Anand Rati Wealth and more trade ex-dividend
Technical view
From a technical perspective, Nifty has formed a near-term bottom around the 24,750 level. To regain momentum, the pair needs to move above the 25,330 and 25,500 resistance levels. According to Santosh Meena, a break below 24,750 could lead to further selling pressure towards 24,440 and 24,100.
“For Bank Nifty, the psychological level of 50,000 is being defended, but the immediate hurdle is 51,700 followed by significant resistance at 52,350 for any meaningful recovery. Further below the 50,000-49,500 range That could lead to a decline,” Meena said.
A break below these levels could increase selling pressure towards 24,500. Conversely, resistance lies at 25,250, where buying could trigger a move towards 25,600. Overall, the outlook for next week appears to be leaning bullish, favoring a buy-the-dip strategy.
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