Last spring, customs officials in the small nation of Moldova unearthed gold. Based on state intelligence tips from Russia, they captured more than 100 passengers who arrived from Russia via Armenia. Each passenger was carrying bundles of cash just short of the 10,000 euro threshold for mandatory declaration. Chisinau airport authorities seized more than 900,000 euros overnight.
Moldovan authorities immediately warned that the cash couriers were part of a plot allegedly led by a fugitive oligarch with ties to the Kremlin, to finance demonstrators and threaten this month’s presidential election and vital EU nationals. It was announced that the purpose was to buy votes at the polls.
The operation, Moldovan and Western officials said in interviews with the Observer, was a series of destabilizing campaigns to undermine the country’s efforts to gain EU membership and weaken the authority of its pro-Western president. There were early signs that this was an unprecedented effort by Russia to
“Russia is funneling millions of dollars of dirty money to hijack our democratic process. This is not just interference, but a full-fledged attack aimed at destabilizing our future. It’s a serious interference. And that’s alarming,” said Olga Roska, a foreign policy adviser to pro-Western President Maia Sandu.
Moldova’s President Maia Sandu, who is running for re-election this month, has a pro-European agenda and is an anti-corruption reformer. Photo: Dumitru Dor/EPA
The election, scheduled for Oct. 20, when Mr. Sandu faces re-election, will give Moldovans a chance to decide whether to support constitutional reforms that would eventually allow the country, one of Europe’s poorest countries, to join the country. It is scheduled to be held on the same day as the referendum. EU.
Roška said the government estimates that at least 100 million euros were funneled into Moldova from Russia to manipulate the elections and the EU referendum. This is not the first warning of Russian interference. In June, the United States, Britain and Canada said Russia was trying to interfere in Moldova’s politics and spark mass protests if its campaign failed.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moldova has oscillated between pro-Western and pro-Russian policies, but the Kremlin’s shadow has always loomed large. Moscow also has 1,500 troops stationed in Transnistria, a region ruled by pro-Russian separatists who broke away from Moldovan government control in a brief war in the 1990s.
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Sandu, a former World Bank official, was elected president in November 2020 on a wave of popularity as an anti-corruption reformer with pro-European policies. She advocates a humble lifestyle, in contrast to the bombastic, predominantly male politicians who have dominated Moldovan politics for years.
The president said in a recent interview that while she shares a two-bedroom apartment with her mother, her financial statements from 2023 show her bank balance as $600.
In 2021, Sandu’s pro-Western party, PAS, won a majority in the country’s parliamentary elections, giving him unprecedented powers to implement reforms and push the country towards the West. However, three years later, Moldova is still mired in economic and political instability.
First, the country was plunged into an energy crisis when Kremlin-controlled Gazprom cut gas supplies into the country by a third and demanded more than double the previous rate to maintain supplies. This was widely seen as Moscow’s political revenge against Sandu. pro-Western position. Russia’s war with Ukraine then plunged Moldova into a broader financial crisis.
Moldova, just a few hours’ drive from Odesa, hosts the highest number of Ukrainian refugees per capita, putting a huge strain on its health system, public services and infrastructure. Inflation rose by up to 40% as trade with both Moscow and Kiev fell sharply.
Fugitive businessman Ilan Shor (left) is accused of establishing a “Mafia-style” voter-buying scheme. Photo: Daniel Mikhailescu/AFP/Getty Images
The arrival of Russian missiles during the conflict heightened the sense of crisis, and the presence of Russian troops in Transnistria further amplified the anxiety.
“Sandu promised a lot, but the geopolitical situation was very difficult for her. They have not fulfilled all their promises,” a Western official in Moldova said, adding that some Moldovans He said this while reflecting on the growing dissatisfaction with Sandu and his party.
“Apathy and disappointment are growing, and this is fertile ground for Russia,” the official added.
Sandu remains the favorite to win the first round of presidential voting against 10 challengers, but faces a difficult second-round runoff.
She is also leading the ‘Yes’ campaign for the EU referendum, with opinion polls showing between 55 and 65 per cent of voters are in favor of EU membership. In a major boost for Sandu, Moldova officially began EU accession negotiations in June. However, skepticism remains over whether the country will be able to implement the necessary democratic and judicial reforms in the near future.
Opposition critics have accused Mr. Sandu of politicizing by holding the referendum on the same day as the presidential election, rather than the move being aimed at boosting his own political chances. It suggests that. “The referendum is a very cynical move,” said Alexandre Stoianoglo from Chisinau. He is one of Sandu’s main rivals, with the pro-Russian Socialist Party having an approval rating of 12%.
He added: “EU integration should not be used for personal gain.”
But people close to Sandu said Russia’s growing influence meant the country could not afford to wait. “We have a unique opportunity. Moldova has a pro-European president, parliament and government. Last June, all countries supported accession negotiations and the EU is open to our membership. ” Rosa said. “Moldova’s survival as a democracy is at stake, and geopolitical risks are higher than ever,” Rosca said.
Sandu’s biggest threats come from abroad, her supporters say. In particular, Ilan Shor, a fugitive pro-Russian businessman who vocally opposes EU membership and is facing sanctions from Western countries.
Last year, Mr. Scholl was sentenced in absentia to 15 years in prison for his role in the disappearance of $1 billion from Moldova’s banking system. He fled to Israel and then to Moscow, where he founded a political movement aimed at destabilizing the current government in Chisinau.
At a press conference last Thursday, National Police Chief Viorel Cernaušanu said that Scholl and Moscow had established a complex “Mafia-style” voter-buying scheme, bribing 130,000 Moldovans to oppose the referendum. , accused him of voting for a pro-Russian candidate. “Unprecedented direct attack.”
Officials in Chisinau also believe that Mr. Scholl is behind a series of pre-election vandalism attacks on government buildings, and that he has recruited young people allegedly trained in Moscow to sow unrest in the country. He is accused of recruiting. “We are prepared for any eventuality in the coming weeks,” a city security official said. “There will be various misinformation campaigns, violent street protests, and crude vote-buying,” they added.
Mr. Scholl did not respond to questions from observers. But he has done little to distance himself from accusations that he is trying to interfere in Moldova’s politics from abroad. Through the social network Telegram, he offered to pay voters the equivalent of $29 if they registered with his campaign and “persuaded as many people as possible at the polling station” to vote “no or abstain” in the election. Promised money to people. referendum.
He has publicly promised to pay Moldovans who publish anti-EU posts on Facebook and Telegram.
Vadim Pistrynchuk, head of the Moldova Institute for Strategic Initiatives think tank, said the “fear-mongering” narrative promoted by Scholl was centered around Chisinau’s pro-European policies pushing the country toward war with Russia. He said that he is focusing on the claim that there is.
“We have never faced this level of foreign interference,” he added.
Alarmingly for officials in Chisinau, Scholl’s tactics have also proven effective in other parts of the country.
Last year, a previously unknown Shor-supporting candidate, Evgenia Gutsul, won the gubernatorial election in Gagauzia Oblast, another small, Russian-speaking, semi-autonomous region in the south of the country, causing a political shock. caused.
Pro-Russian sentiment has always been high in the Gagauzia region, home to a Turkish minority, and since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, there has been an unstable relationship with the capital Chisinau.
But Gutslu’s rise from obscurity and ties to the Kremlin have surprised even veteran observers, raising questions about Russia’s role in her election.
“She had zero turnout two weeks before the election and then suddenly she showed up and won,” said Mikhail Shirkeri, founder of Nokta, an independent media outlet based in Gagauzia.
Mr. Gutsul publicly announced his candidacy for a “pro-Russian party” and traveled to Moscow to meet with Mr. Vladimir Putin after winning the election, but he is currently under investigation on suspicion of funneling Russian funds to parties associated with Mr. Schor. are.
“Shor is trying to repeat Gagauzia’s strategy across the country,” said a Western diplomat in Chisinau.
For now, Moldovan officials believe the Russian government is focused on influencing the EU referendum rather than the presidential election, in which Sandu remains the most popular politician.
“If the referendum passes, it will lead to a constitutional amendment, but it will be harder to overturn in the long term compared to election results,” said a senior Moldovan official.
But even if Sandu survives this month’s vote and referendum, his team hopes to see renewed Kremlin efforts next year when his party faces re-election in parliamentary elections. I am doing it.
“Russia’s goal is clear: to keep Moldova in a gray zone,” Roska said. “If we lose Moldova, we will lose our strategic foothold in the region.”
