What goes down must go up’: Real estate star Ryan Serhant predicts market recovery after 2024 election
Real estate broker Ryan Serhant predicts the housing market will pick up after the presidential election.
Serhant explained the market in store during an appearance on Fox Business last week. “Inventory is building. Interest rates are at 20-month lows, but buyers are still on the sidelines,” he told the FOX Business hosts. “No one wants to catch a falling knife, but no one wants to jump into a speeding car either.”
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Despite the current market hesitation, Serhant remains optimistic. He pointed to solid fundamentals, noting that prices are up 6% year over year. The real estate broker, known for his role on Million Dollar Listing, believes the November election will be a turning point. “I think people are waiting to see what happens in November and whether that takes us into a roaring 2025,” he said.
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Mr. Serhant’s forecast hinges on expectations for further interest rate declines. He believes that if mortgage rates fall into the 5% range, buyers may be able to buy into the high 4% range, increasing liquidity in the market across all buyer categories, from institutional investors to individual homeowners. Then it is suggested.
However, current market trends present challenges. Mr Serhant said 90% of existing mortgages had interest rates below 5%, creating a lock-in effect. “Most homeowners are sitting there and saying, ‘Look, I’m going to wait a little bit longer,'” he says. This hesitation has led to historically low transaction volumes, with Serhant predicting only 2.5% of U.S. homes will be replaced this year.
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Not all experts share Serhant’s bullish outlook. Nick Ghaly, CEO of Revenger Consulting, said that despite mortgage rates slowly falling, there were problems in the market.
Gerli said that despite lower interest rates, demand for home purchases remains weak, with mortgage applications down 57% from the peak of the pandemic and 43% below pre-pandemic levels.
The industry’s hopes for a quick recovery in response to lower interest rates have not materialized.
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Gerli said factors contributing to the weak demand include affordability constraints, a drying up of buyers after the pandemic boom and record pessimism about the housing market. Recent data from the University of Michigan shows that 87% of consumers think it’s a bad time to buy a home, higher than even in the early 1980s when mortgage rates hit 18%.
According to August data from Redfin, the current median home list price in the U.S. is approximately $432,849. Rising prices and mortgage rates of about 6.62% for 30-year loans are creating affordability challenges for many Americans.
As the market approaches a potential inflection point, buyers and industry participants continue to focus on key indicators such as interest rate trends, election results, and broader economic policies that could impact home prices in the coming year. are.
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