Main highlights
Existing home sales fell 1.0% in September, the lowest level since 2010. New home sales grew more than expected, increasing by 4.1% from the previous month. Consumer sentiment rose 0.6% in October, surprising analysts.
Housing market trends
The housing market showed mixed trends in September, with a large gap between existing home sales and new home sales.
Existing home sales fell 1.0% in September, the lowest level since 2010. Inventories rose 1.5%, the highest level since October 2020. New home sales increased by 4.1% from the previous month and by 6.3% from the previous year. Most active in the Northeast and South. Total home sales fell 0.2% in the month, and down 2.1% from the same month last year, hampered by high mortgage rates despite the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts.
labor market dynamics
The labor market has worsened this year, with claims increasing and lasting longer.
New jobless claims fell by 15,000 to 227,000 for the week ending October 19, but remain above pre-pandemic levels. Continuing claims increased by 28,000 to 1.9 million as of October 12, the highest level in about three years. The broadest measure of continuing claims fell by 16,000 to 1.62 million, down 72,000 over the past four weeks. After the disruption caused by Hurricanes Helen and Milton, the latest data does not show a continued trend of increasing initial claims. Still, continuing claims indicate that many more people remain unemployed due to the storm and the Boeing strike.
Consumer sentiment and inflation expectations
Consumer sentiment showed unexpected resilience in October, supported by improving conditions and stable inflation expectations.
Consumer sentiment rose 0.6% month-over-month and 10.5% year-over-year, with an improved view of the current situation, according to a University of Michigan index. Consumers’ median one-year inflation expectations remained stable at 2.7%, while five-year expectations fell to 3.0%. Consumers’ views on car purchases improved to the highest level since April. The improvement in sentiment doesn’t surprise us, as Morning Consult’s daily index of consumer sentiment recorded further improvement in October, extending its streak of gains to five consecutive months of gains. Ta. As of Friday, October 25th, the Morning Consult Index was up 1.4% for the month and 9.2% year-over-year.
gas price
Gasoline prices have fallen this month as of October 24th.
The national average for unleaded gas has fallen 1.9% since the end of September to $3.14 per gallon, down 11% from a year ago, according to AAA. Jonathan Smoak
chief economist
Jonathan Smoak leads Cox Automotive’s Economic and Industry Insights team, which tracks key metrics and trends impacting both wholesale and retail automotive markets based on proprietary data from the company’s businesses and platforms. I’m doing it. For 28 years, Smoke has focused on transforming data and trends into relevant, actionable insights for the industries where consumers make the biggest purchases of their lives: real estate and autos. Smoke joined Cox Automotive in 2017.
