Pennsylvania has one of the fastest aging populations in the nation. It’s a case study in how the United States deals with a surge in retirees and a decline in young workers. Older voters told BI it’s important that Harris and Trump prioritize retirees. safety.
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Maureen, 67, plans to vote for former President Donald Trump in November, believing he will be better off financially now that he is retired.
The northeastern Pennsylvania resident, who asked that her last name be withheld to protect her privacy, said she approaches every election with an open mind and has voted for both Republicans and Democrats. Like many Americans, the deciding factor for Maureen this time around is her perception of the economy.
“As I look back over the last eight years, my 401(k) has grown during the four years of President Trump,” Maureen told Business Insider. “Do I like his personality? No, I don’t. But my 401(k) went up, interest rates were low, and unemployment was low.”
Maureen’s views highlight a common theme among American voters, especially those who are paying close attention to retirement. That means whoever is president is responsible for how they feel about their finances. Despite the fact that stock prices have increased significantly under the Biden and Trump administrations, and despite the fact that the Federal Reserve, not the president, sets benchmark interest rates, Maureen is dissatisfied. They still claim that the current government is to blame.
Marjorie Klein, 80, lives in Philadelphia and is also retired. Like Maureen, she is concerned about the economic security of older Americans, but she plans to support Vice President Kamala Harris.
“He says he’s going to keep Social Security, but you never know what he’s going to do,” Klein told BI about President Trump.
Americans like Maureen and Klein may decide the election. According to a Morning Consult poll conducted from October 6 to 15, Harris leads Trump by just one point in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. But among Pennsylvania voters over 50, a recent AARP poll found Trump with an 8-point lead over Harris.
“We are a critical state for this presidential term,” said Bill Johnston Walsh, AARP Pennsylvania state director. “Anyone who wants that will have to go through us.”
Pennsylvania is a case study in the role the federal government will play in supporting America’s aging population in the coming decades through programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Pennsylvania voters and economists told BI that for the economy and workforce to function effectively, it is critical that the incoming presidential administration plan for a future in which retirees significantly outnumber young Americans. He said it was important. As a battleground state, it’s critical for the campaign that Harris and Trump listen to the concerns of older Pennsylvanians.
Social Security and Medicare are in the spotlight
Pennsylvania’s population is aging rapidly. There are nearly 2.5 million residents over the age of 65, making it the fifth-largest population in the country. Nationally, the number of adults aged 65 and older is expected to increase by 20 million people between now and 2040.
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The state’s residents rely heavily on federal income, primarily through Social Security and Medicare, and two rural counties, Fayette and Cambria, are the most heavily reliant in the nation, according to a report by the nonpartisan Economic Innovation Group. It turned out to be one of the dependent counties.
Benjamin Glasner, co-author of the EIG report, told BI that counties with the highest levels of dependency are typically in older, poorer, and more rural communities. Cumbria, for example, needed more government aid after its steelworks closed in the 1980s. Residents’ incomes have not yet recovered.
“There’s a limit to how much you can get from Social Security, there’s a limit to how much Medicare can cover, there’s a limit to how much Medicaid can cover,” Glassner said, and that depends on how generous the program is. It added that it was creating “a thin level of economic prosperity”.
Mike Crossey, 73, has seen firsthand the limits of government aid in his work helping retirees. Pittsburgh area residents want the next U.S. president to strengthen Social Security, protect pensions and expand Medicare. He said he knows too many older Americans living on Social Security alone, and the national average for retirees in September was $1,921.
“Every day I encounter people who are making decisions about, ‘Should I take my prescription today or should I have lunch today?’ It just breaks my heart,” Crossy said. Ta.
President Trump has denied cutting Social Security and previously criticized Republican lawmakers who proposed raising the retirement age to 70, but the Committee for a Responsible Budget has warned that Trump’s policy would allow for as early as six years. He said cuts to Social Security benefits could be forced within the next few days. Harris proposed strengthening Social Security by ensuring the wealthy and large corporations pay their tax obligations.
A recent report from the Social Security and Medicare Board of Directors shows that Social Security will only be able to pay full benefits for the next 11 years, making the problem more pressing than just Pennsylvanians. It becomes. “Congress and the next administration need to take a serious look at Social Security,” said Richard Fiesta, executive director of the 4 million-member bipartisan Alliance of Retired Americans.
Some retirees are living comfortably despite economic headwinds. But Fiesta said declines in defined benefit pension plans (employer-subsidized retirement plans) are contributing to lower average savings for retirees.
This means that more Americans are relying primarily on Social Security to survive financially as they age. According to the aforementioned EIG report, income from government aid is the fastest-growing portion of Americans’ incomes, driven primarily by retirees, and is the fastest-growing portion of Americans’ income. The proportion is increasing.
“And that’s what we’re seeing over the last 10 to 15 years as that generation ages toward retirement,” Fiesta said.
Aging workforce creates employment mismatch
Pennsylvania is already beginning to see a workforce imbalance as the number of young people declines and the number of retirees increases.
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Kyle Kopko, executive director of the Pennsylvania Rural Center, a nonpartisan legislative group, said local business owners are complaining of a labor shortage. CRP research suggests this is because fewer older adults are working in traditional jobs and instead pursue entrepreneurship to supplement their retirement income. At the same time, falling birth rates also mean young adults are not filling open roles, Kopko said.
“If Pennsylvania doesn’t have young people to replace some of the retirees, there will be a supply-demand imbalance,” Kopko said.While retirees play a large role in the economy as consumers, He stated that his role was not that big. The same goes for workers.
On national employment issues, Ms. Harris proposed tax incentives for small businesses to encourage job growth, while Mr. Trump proposed tax breaks for small businesses to encourage job growth, while Mr. Trump The main focus has been on strengthening.
The infrastructure industry, one potential avenue for job creation, is barely mentioned in policy discussions by either candidate. Bill Candelori, a 68-year-old retired commercial painter, believes this is an overlooked opportunity. He said Biden’s infrastructure investment, which brought $16 billion to Pennsylvania, was a promising step, but he wants the incoming administration to go further.
“It’s not just roads and bridges; it’s airports, water departments, schools, libraries, all public projects,” Candelori said. “That’s our job. And then the upkeep of the facility. That’s job creation.”
Political measures being taken
State and local governments are already taking steps to address these growing problems. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) worked with members of his administration to create a 10-year strategic plan that outlines eight key priorities for seniors, including housing, transportation, health and community supports. did.
Pennsylvania Secretary of Aging Jason Kavrich said this is a bipartisan issue with bipartisan support, saying, “Nobody I’ve ever talked to cares about the elderly in my district.” “There’s not a single member of the House or the Senate.”
J.R. Reed and Krista Geer, who are in charge of the countywide Aging Agency, met with Pennsylvania’s seniors to hear their biggest concerns. Geer said one of the biggest concerns she’s heard is the high cost of living, which makes it difficult to buy medicine, gas and groceries. Although inflation has eased in recent months, it is still historically high and putting pressure on consumers.
“Social Security just hasn’t kept up with it,” Geer said. This program adjusts payments annually to account for inflation. Critics argue that this is not tied to metrics that accurately reflect the spending of older Americans.
Mr. Reed and Mr. Geer agree that the solution is for older people to have larger nest eggs, not through Social Security. Mr. Reed said he hopes Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris will continue funding a 1965 federal law that provides money to states to increase support for the elderly.
At the federal level, Harris recently proposed a plan to extend Medicare coverage to in-home elderly care, which Fiesta said would help both seniors and the families who typically care for them. It will be of great help.”
President Trump has so far provided minimal details about his plans to address elderly care. Brian Hughes, a senior campaign adviser, told BI that presidential candidate and running mate J.D. “We share the principle of leveraging efficiency.”
Overall, the risks to America’s aging population are high and require bipartisan participation to ensure the country is adequately prepared for a surge in retirees.
Cavulich said this change needs to be tackled head-on.
“Older people are what really drives our economy,” Kavrich said. “They make our communities tick, so we have to respect that and we shouldn’t just think of them as frail, old and weak. ”
