In his 2016 book, “Unstable Majorities,” political scientist Francis E. Lee argued that frequent majorities are responsible for the sharp partisanship of 21st century American politics. Well, if she’s right, we’ll probably end up experiencing more of the same. Either party could win the House in 2024, but neither Republicans nor Democrats have a realistic chance of winning a supermajority.
Previews of this year’s House elections are supposed to start in 2022, when Republicans hope to ride a red wave and win a majority. Although it fell short of expectations, it still narrowly won a majority in the House of Representatives. It stands to reason that if they perform better this time, they should be able to maintain a majority. They hold 220 seats to Democrats’ 212, and Republicans will almost certainly win one of the three open seats this cycle. Republicans are likely to pick up three seats in North Carolina due to off-cycle redistricting. Democrats, on the other hand, will likely only pick up one seat in Alabama and one in Louisiana.
Perhaps most importantly, the Democratic Party is a more urban party, so its voters are somewhat more concentrated geographically. For electoral purposes, this means that voters are distributed somewhat inefficiently. This phenomenon exists independently of gerrymandering and represents a real (albeit modest) advantage for Republicans. In other words, there are more safe Republican seats than safe Democratic seats.
These factors add up to give Republicans a slightly better House map, but their advantage is much smaller than in this year’s Senate races. Republicans hold only 11 seats, while Democrats (plus independents) hold 23 seats. Based on the Cook Political Report’s assessment, Republicans should maintain a solid and likely lean campaign and win 11 of 25 toss-ups to retain the House.
More subjectively, Republican candidates in contested seats also look stronger this year than in 2022. After the midterm elections, I argued that Republicans lost many potential seats by alienating voters in battleground districts where overly Trump-like candidates could win. This time, too, that dynamic is not completely absent. Joe Kent, the former Army Ranger who sought amnesty for “political prisoners” on Jan. 6, is running again for Washington’s 3rd District, and Democratic Congressman Marie Grusenkamp Perez has , has a better chance of holding onto the seat than more conventional candidates — but Kent has rebranded his 2024 campaign to focus on his opponent’s weaknesses. And Texas Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, who has struggled to fend off corruption charges in his border district, has a pro-MAGA profile but no long-standing ties to the district. I was lucky to have it.
But in general, the Republican Party has done a great job of fielding and fielding diverse and attractive candidates for this fall’s general election. Many have military backgrounds, but backgrounds in business, law, and state legislature are also common. Many are younger than their opponents.
As racial depolarization continues rapidly, many of these challengers are indicative of what the Republican Party will look like in the coming years. For example, Carmen Goers is challenging U.S. Rep. Kim Schrier in Washington’s 8th Congressional District, east of Seattle. New York City Police Department veteran Allison Esposito is challenging Democratic Congressman Pat Ryan in New York’s 18th District. And Kevin Lincoln, the grandson of Mexican immigrants, is running against Democratic Congressman Josh Harder in California’s 9th Congressional District. In Kansas’ 3rd Congressional District, Dr. Prasanth Reddy is facing Congresswoman Sharice Davids in the Kansas City metropolitan area. And in Ohio’s 1st Congressional District, Filipino-American West Point graduate Orlando Sonza is running against Congressman Greg Landsman.
But all of these attractive challengers will likely lose, in part because the Democratic incumbent’s opponents have more money, and in many cases more money. Democratic House candidates’ fundraising performance in the third quarter was impressive, allowing them to secure more money for their final races in most battleground states. Democrats appear to be holding onto competitive seats largely due to their financial strength.
Take Ohio’s 13th Congressional District, centered around Akron, as an example. Rep. Emilia Sykes stayed purple for Democrats in 2022 (Rep. Tim Ryan pursued an unsuccessful Senate race). Her previous opponent in the race was endorsed by former President Donald Trump in a crowded primary. and was seen as a supporter of his kind of politics. Sykes won by 5 points. But her opponent this year, Kevin Coughlin, is more difficult to caricature, offering an attractive blue-collar background with experience in the Ohio State Legislature. But Sykes has more than quadrupled her fundraising efforts, increasing her cash on hand by $1.4 million to $453,000 in October.
Similarly, in Colorado’s 8th District, which was created in 2022 and includes areas north of Denver, lawmakers said: Yadira Caraveo will face Gabe Evans, a promising young veteran. She brought in nearly $5 million and started October with a $2.3 million to $822,000 advantage. Several Republican incumbents defending tight seats, including Rep. Juan Siscomani, No. 6 in Arizona, Rep. Mark Molinaro, No. 19 in New York, and Rep. Lori Chavez Delemer, No. 5 in Oregon, are defending the economy. I feel that I am in a very disadvantageous position. All of these candidates raised a lot of money, but we saw Democratic challengers raise even more money. They have to expect marginal returns to decrease and money to basically flow out.
The money is also turning safe Republican seats into Democrats’ favor. Congresswoman Lauren Boebert narrowly missed winning Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District in 2022. She concluded that the future of Congress would be brighter if she moved to the redder 4th District. There she will easily win the primary and likely sail to victory. (It’s a largely unprecedented move, and it will be interesting to see if Boebert’s cleverness inspires copycats.) Her 2022 opponent, Adam Frisch, was already at the point where she left. It raised a large amount of money and continued to attract donors. she left. He collected an incredible $15.8 million during the cycle, well below new opponent Jeff Hurd’s (totally respectable) $1.9 million earnings. Hurd, an attorney with deep roots in western Colorado, remains the frontrunner in this solidly red district (Republican +7), but in some ways this election is about what money can buy in a House race. It also seems like a good touchstone to test what’s going on.
There are certainly exceptions to Democrats’ financial lead. To defend their purple district seats, two Southern California Republicans, Rep. Young Kim (40th District) and Rep. Michelle Steele (45th District), are facing (also well-funded) Democratic challengers. He built up a great military base to defeat the enemy. Iowa Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, like Michigan Republican Rep. John James (north of Detroit) and Virginia Rep. Jen Quiggans (Virginia Beach), is an economic powerhouse in a light-red district that includes Cedar Rapids. has a big advantage.
But overall, it is clear that Democrats have a lead in narrowly contested districts. By my calculations, Democrats in the Cook Political Report’s 68 most competitive districts raised an average of $1.7 million more than their Republican opponents. In addition, the Democratic Party’s party organ, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, outspends the Republican Party’s committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee. Spending outside of super PACs also appears to be favoring Democrats right now.
One might think that a narrow margin on either party would perpetuate the model of the 118th House, where (by suspending the rule) only bills approved by two-thirds of members are likely to pass. I don’t know. That may be true. But surprisingly, both parties dream of winning the coveted trifecta that would allow them to pursue their agendas on a strictly partisan basis. If President Trump were to combine with a Republican Senate and face a Democratic House, it would look very different than if Republicans controlled both chambers. The same is true for President Harris, but it would be very surprising if Democrats could win the Senate at this point but fail to win the House.
The nation may be focused on the race between Harris and Trump at the moment, but regardless of who is in the White House, the results of the House elections will have an impact on the next administration.
